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Soil Science Society of America Journal 66:857-867 (2002)
© 2002 Soil Science Society of America

DIVISION S-4—SOIL FERTILITY & PLANT NUTRITION

Yield and Soil Fertility Trends in a 20-Year Rice–Rice–Wheat Experiment in Nepal

A. P. Regmia, J. K. Ladha*,a, H. Pathaka, E. Pasuquina, C. Buenoa, D. Dawea, P. R. Hobbsb, D. Joshyc, S. L. Maskeyc and S. P. Pandeyc

a Social Sciences Division, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines
b CIMMYT, P.O. Box 5186, Kathmandu, Nepal
c Central Soil Science Division, NARC, Khumaltar, Nepal

* Corresponding author (J.K.LADHA{at}cgiar.org)


    ABSTRACT
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
The rice (Oryza sativa L.)–wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cropping system occupies about 13.5 million ha in South Asia and is important for the region's food security. We examined the long-term yield trends, changes in soil nutrient fractions (both total and available), and nutrient balances in a 20-yr rice–rice–wheat experiment conducted in the Indo-Gangetic plain of Nepal. The yield of first rice crop fertilized with recommended NPK fertilizer or farmyard manure (FYM) declined an average of 0.09 or 0.07 Mg ha-1 yr-1, respectively. These 20-yr trends explained only 20 to 21% of the variability in yield, and inexplicable shorter-term yield trends were observed. Likewise, wheat yield declined at 0.05 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (with both NPK and FYM) over the 20 yr. However, the yield of second rice crop did not decline over that period. The total and available N and P, and total and labile C contents of soil from Year 10 to 20 were either maintained or increased, but total K and available K declined. The apparent K balance showed net losses of 62.3 and 15.2 kg K ha-1 yr-1 with NPK and FYM treatments, respectively. Depletion of soil K and inadequate K fertilization seems to be the primary reasons of limited and declining yield of first rice and wheat crop. In addition, the yield of wheat declined because of a delay in sowing, which was estimated to be 0.04 Mg ha-1 for each day delay in sowing. The study showed that the current local fertilizer recommendations, particularly for K, for the rice–rice–wheat system are inadequate.

Abbreviations: DAS, days after sowing • DAT, days after transplanting • EC, electrical conductivity • FYM, farmyard manure • IRRI, International Rice Research Institute • LTE, long-term experiment • PMN, potentially mineralizable N • TC, total C • TK, total K • TN, total N • TP, total P • WSC, water-soluble C


    INTRODUCTION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
THE RICEWHEAT ROTATION has emerged as a major production system in the Indo-Gangetic plains of South Asia. The rice–wheat system is important for the region's food security. It is currently practiced on about 13.5 million ha of prime agricultural land in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan with another 10.5 million ha in China (Ladha et al., 2000). In Nepal about 0.5 million ha under the rice–wheat system, mostly in the Tarai plain, meets ~75% of the country's total food demand (Nepal Agricultual Research Council [NARC], 1995). The Tarai belt is an extension of the Indo-Gangetic plains and has an altitude of 100 to 200 m above mean sea level. The productivity and profitability of the rice–wheat system in Nepal are quite low (NARC, 1995; Hobbs and Morris, 1996). Moreover, recent studies indicated declining trends of rice and wheat yield (Brar et al., 1998; Yadav et al., 1998, 2000; Duxbury et al., 2000). It is estimated that the population of Nepal will grow at 2.7% per annum (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations [FAO], 1996), which would require a doubling of rice production in the next 25 yr. Since arable land is becoming limited, improving productivity and increasing cropping intensity by adopting the rice–rice–wheat system in potentially irrigated areas will be required to meet the food demand of the region's increasing population. At present, this system is practiced in Nepal only in the subtropical Tarai and lower foothill river basins. However, maintenance of soil fertility will be essential to improve and sustain yields from this intensive cropping system. One of the main constraints to rice and wheat production in South Asia is low soil organic matter content and low indigenous nutrient supply (Nambiar, 1994; Adhikari et al., 1999). Whether the soil resources of the intensive rice–rice–wheat system can support future increases in production is of concern.

Long-term experiments (LTEs) are valuable for determining yield trends, estimating nutrient dynamics and balances, understanding changes in yield, predicting soil carrying capacity, and assessing system sustainability. Several LTEs began in the 1970s in double- and triple-cropped rice and rice–wheat systems in many tropical Asian countries to monitor yield trends and system sustainability. The data of many LTEs have been analyzed, but the analyses are mostly restricted to yield trends. The analyses of some of these experiments have shown declining rice and wheat yields (Cassman et al., 1995; Nambiar, 1994; Brar et al., 1998; Yadav et al., 1998, 2000; Duxbury et al., 2000), whereas in others, yields either increased or were maintained (Aggarwal et al., 2000a; Yadav et al., 2000; Dawe et al., 2000). Where a yield decline is reported, the major causes suggested are a gradual decline in the supply of soil nutrients because of inappropriate fertilizer applications, a decline in soil organic matter content, atmospheric pollution, pest and disease infestation, and negative changes in the biochemical and physical composition of soil organic matter (Nambiar, 1994; Yadav et al., 1998, 2000).

In the present study, we analyzed results from an LTE conducted over a 20-yr period at the Regional Agricultural Research Station, Bhairhawa, Nepal, with a continuous triple cereal crop system (rice–rice–wheat). This LTE provided an opportunity to monitor changes in soil nutrient status, because the soil archives were maintained. This study aimed to (i) examine the yield trends of rice and wheat under long-term organic and mineral fertilization, (ii) identify the causes of such yield trends, (iii) monitor changes in nutrient contents of soil under continuous cropping, and (iv) estimate apparent input-output balances of N, P, and K in a few selected treatments.


    MATERIALS AND METHODS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
Long-Term Experiment
A long-term permanent plot experiment has been conducted since June 1978 at the Regional Agricultural Research Station, Bhairhawa, Nepal. The site is located in the central piedmont of Nepal at 120 m above mean sea level at 27°32' N lat. and 83°28' E long. The soils are Typic Haplaquepts (calcareous) formed on Himalayan residuum. Soil (0–15 cm) texture is silt loam (sand 120 g kg-1, silt 670 g kg-1, and clay 210 g kg-1) with pH (1:1 soil/water suspension) 8.0, electrical conductivity (EC) (saturation extract) 1.4 dS m-1, cation-exchange capactiy (CEC) 31 cmol kg-1, and bulk density 1.6 Mg m-3. The area has a subtropical climate highly influenced by the southwestern monsoon. The average annual rainfall is around 1687 mm. More than 85% of the rainfall occurs from mid-June to the end of September. November and December are the driest months and light precipitation may be expected in January and February. The mean monthly temperature ranges from a minimum of 8.5°C in January to a maximum of 36.2°C in May. The source of irrigation water for the study area is groundwater pumped from 200-m-deep tube wells.

The experiment included three crops per year, first rice (April–July), second rice (July–November), and wheat (November–March), with nine treatments arranged in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Plots are 6 m long and 4 m wide. For the current study, the following six treatments were used: (i) Treatment 1, control (no added nutrients); (ii) Treatment 2, N only; (iii) Treatment 3, N and P (NP); (iv) Treatment 4, N and K (NK); (v) Treatment 5, N, P, and K (NPK); and (vi) Treatment 6, farmyard manure (FYM) only (Table 1). Fertilizers were applied as per the recommendations set by the Nepal Agricultural Council when the experiment began. All the P as (NH4)2HPO4 and K as KCl were applied in Treatments 2 to 5 as basal fertilizer on the day of planting. Nitrogen was applied in two splits, 50% at transplanting of rice and sowing of wheat as (NH4)2HPO4 plus urea and the remaining 50% topdressed as urea at 25 to 30 d after transplanting (DAT) of rice and at 21 to 25 d after sowing (DAS) of wheat. Farmyard manure containing 20.0 g kg-1 N, 4.5 g kg-1 P, and 10.0 g kg-1 K (dry-weight basis) was applied 4 to 7 d before transplanting or sowing. Two rice seedlings (20- to 30-d-old) were transplanted at 20 by 20-cm spacing. Wheat (120 kg seed ha-1) was sown in rows 25 cm apart. Cultivars of rice and wheat and dates of transplanting or sowing in different years are given in Table 2. Irrigation was given in rice to maintain a submerged condition (3- to 5-cm water layer). But, in the first rice because of high evapotranspiration resulting from high temperature, the soil moisture many times dropped below field capacity. This may have resulted in differences in oxidation-reduction status of soil in two rice crops. Plots were drained ~15 d before the rice harvest. In wheat, three irrigations were given at crown root initiation (21 DAS), maximum tillering (55 DAS), and flowering (85 DAS). Hand weeding was done to manage the weeds and plant protection measures were applied when needed to control pests. Crops were harvested manually close to the ground using sickles and straw was removed from the field. The grains were separated from the straw using a plot thresher. Grain yield was measured from the whole plot in both crops at maturity and was adjusted to 140 and 120 g water kg-1 for rice and wheat, respectively.


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Table 1. Treatments used in the rice–rice–wheat long-term experiment, Bhairhawa, Nepal (1978–1998).

 

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Table 2. Dates of transplanting or sowing and variety used in the rice–rice–wheat experiment, Bhairhawa, Nepal (1978–1998).

 
Greenhouse Trial
A pot experiment in the greenhouse at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Philippines, was conducted from March to April 1993. The purpose of this experiment was to determine the effects of various treatments on nutrient concentrations of rice tissue and then to examine their critical levels for deficiency or toxicity. The soil from the upper 15 cm of long-term plots at Bhairhawa, Nepal was collected after the harvest of Crop 13, air-dried, and brought to the Philippines. Five hundred grams of air-dried soil was placed in each porcelain pot (14-cm height and 8-cm diam.) and kept continuously flooded throughout the duration of the experiment. Two 8-d-old seedlings of rice cultivar Janaki were transplanted per pot and plants were grown for 5 wk. The plants were cut close to the soil and dried at 70°C for 72 h and ground. Plant analyses for P, K, Ca, Mg, Mn, Zn, and B were done at the Analytical Service Laboratory, IRRI.

Soil Sampling and Analysis
Soil samples of three treatments (control, NPK, and FYM) were collected in Year 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 19 to study the effect of inorganic fertilizers and FYM on soil nutrient content. Soil samples from the 0- to 15-cm layer were collected from three sites in each plot with a bottomless 20 by 20 by 65 cm (width by length by depth) core sampler at ~5 to 10 d after the harvest of second rice. The entire volume of soil was weighed and mixed thoroughly and a subsample was taken to determine dry weight. The fresh soil was air-dried for 7 d, sieved through a 2-mm screen, mixed, and stored in sealed plastic jars for analysis. Representative subsamples were drawn to determine total C and total N (Jimenez and Ladha, 1993), water-soluble C (Nelson and Sommers, 1982), KMnO4-oxidized C (Blair et al., 1995), potentially mineralizable N (Kempers, 1986), total P (Olsen and Sommers, 1982), Bray P (Bray et al., 1954), total K (Knudsen, 1982), and ammonium acetate-extractable K (Council on Soil Testing and Plant Analysis [CSTPA], 1974). Total C and N were analyzed by the dry-combustion method using the Perkin Elmer 2400 CHN analyzer (Perkin Elmer, Norwalk, CT). Analyses of archived soil samples were performed at the same time in the year 2000.

Nutrient Budgets
Annual apparent N, P, and K balances were estimated for the control, NPK, and FYM treatments using different inputs and outputs measured by us during the present experiment and by others in other studies. Average crop yields were considered for apparent balance estimations. Nitrogen, P, and K balances were calculated as:


Among inputs, N, P, and K contents in mineral fertilizer, organic manure and irrigation water were measured in the present study. The N, P, and K contributions of 3.4, 0.2, and 5 kg ha-1 yr-1 with rainfall were based on the data of Mishra (1980) and Brown et al. (1999). Nitrogen input from biological N2 fixation was considered at the rate of 10 kg ha-1 during rice and 5 kg ha-1 during wheat (Brown et al., 1999). In the treatment with FYM, biological-N2 fixation was considered to be higher as amendment of organics such as FYM is known to stimulate N2 fixation (Roper and Ladha, 1995). The quantities of N, P, and K added to the soil with rice seedlings (dry weight 75.6 kg ha-1) and wheat seed (120 kg ha-1) are obtained by considering N, P, and K contents as 41.0, 4.0, and 30.0 g kg-1 in seedlings (dry weight) and 20.0, 3.6, and 4.0 g kg-1 in seeds, respectively.

Plant uptake of N, P, and K was estimated using the QUEFTS (Quantitative Evaluation of Fertility of Tropical Soils) model calibrated for rice (Witt et al., 1999) and wheat (Pathak et al., 2002). Total loss (volatilization, denitrification, and leaching) of fertilizer N was taken to be 600 g kg-1 for rice (Brown et al., 1999; Smaling and Fresco, 1993) and 500 g kg-1 for wheat (Tandon, 1994). Losses of soil N and manure N were estimated based on data reported by Smaling and Fresco (1993), Dobermann and Cassman (1997), and Kundu and Ladha (1997). We assumed that there would be no loss of P through leaching or otherwise from the soil system. Leaching loss of K was taken to be 150 g kg-1 of K input (Smaling and Fresco, 1993).

Data Analyses
Linear regression analyses were done to determine trends (slopes) of grain yield and various soil parameters over the years using SAS systems (SAS Inst., 1995). The P values, t-statistics, and 95% confidence intervals on the slopes were used to test whether the observed changes were significantly different from 0. Analysis of variance for each year was done to determine the effects of treatment on yield and soil properties by PROC GLM (SAS Inst., 1995). Means for each year were compared using Duncan's multiple range test (DMRT) for yield. The slopes and y-intercepts were compared based on their 95% confidence intervals.


    RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
Grain Yield
Yields of both crops of rice were significantly influenced by treatments (Table 3). The yields of first and second rice were consistently higher with NPK and FYM treatments than with treatments in which one or more nutrients were lacking (data not shown). Both crops had the highest yield of ~5 Mg ha-1, indicating a similar yield potential of two seasons. The control yields were lowest in Year 1 and declined to zero with time (Fig. 1) . Treatments 2 (N) and 4 (NK) maintained high yields similar to the NPK and FYM treatments only during the first few years then followed trends similar to the control treatment afterwards, decreasing to zero eventually (data not shown). From Year 5 on, grain yield of first rice, did not exceed 0.75 Mg ha-1 in treatments (control, only N and NK) where P was not applied, and from Year 11 on, no grain yield was produced. However, the second rice crop produced no grain only in Year 18 in the absence of P (data not shown). This indicated that the supply of P largely controlled yields of both rice crops but that the supply was more crucial for the first crop. The omission of K also reduced the yield of both rice crops but the yield loss was substantially less than without P. Compared with the NPK treatment, the maximum yield reduction because of K omission was 40 to 45% in both rice crops (data not shown).


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Table 3. Mean yield, yield change, P value, and R2 in the rice–rice–wheat long-term experiment, Bhairhawa, Nepal (1978–98).

 


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Fig. 1. Trends in yields of first rice crop, second rice crop, and wheat crop with control, NPK, and farmyard manure (FYM) treatments. See Table 3 for regression coefficients.

 
The short-term increases and decreases in grain yield of both rice crops made any 20-yr yield trends less obvious. For the second rice, the 20-yr yield declines in NPK and FYM treatments were small and not statistically significant (Table 3 and Fig. 1). For first crop rice, the statistically significant 20-yr downward yield trend of 0.09 to 0.07 Mg ha-1 yr-1 (for NPK and FYM, respectively) explains only 20 to 21% of the yield variability over that time period (Table 3). The highest yields for both the first and second rice crop were obtained in the NPK treatment in Year 1 (Fig. 1). The magnitude of yield reduction in NPK treatment was similar in the FYM treatment, suggesting that amendment of soil with an organic source could not arrest the yield decline.

Like rice yields, wheat yields were significantly influenced by treatments. Wheat responded to NPK application through either an inorganic or organic source. Yields were consistently higher in the NPK and FYM treatments than in treatments where one or more nutrients were lacking (Table 3). The highest wheat yield of 4.9 Mg ha-1 was obtained in Year 7 in the NPK treatment (Fig. 1). However, in other years, wheat yields were 32.8 to 86.3% lower than the highest yield obtained. The control and treatments without P (NK) and without P and K (N) had the lowest yields (Table 3). Wheat yields without P was 70% of NPK treatment in Year 1 and 10% in Year 13. However, unlike rice, (i) wheat yields did not reach zero in treatments without P and (ii) the yield response to K fertilizer was much stronger in wheat. Except in one year, the wheat yields were significantly lower (P < 0.01) in Treatment 3 without K than in the NPK treatment. These results suggest that soil supply of both P and K limited wheat yield.

Wheat yield declined linearly and the change was significant in all treatments (Fig. 1 and Table 3).

Rice Nutrient Concentration
Treatments significantly influenced all the nutrient concentrations except Mn (Table 4). Potassium was noticeably below the critical level of deficiency in all the treatments, with a very low concentration in the FYM treatment. Phosphorus was deficient in all except the NP and FYM treatments. In the NPK treatment also, the P concentration was lower than the critical level of deficiency. Calcium, Mn, and B were within the optimum range in all treatments. Magnesium was within the normal range in all treatments, with the highest concentration in the NP and FYM treatments, which were slightly above the critical toxic level.


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Table 4. Nutrient concentration in shoot of 35-d rice grown in a greenhouse with soil from long-term plots after 13 yr of rice–rice–wheat cultivation.

 
Soil Properties
Soil samples were not kept for nutrient analysis before the experiment began, nor for the first 9 yr of the experiment.

Total Nitrogen and Potentially Mineralizable Nitrogen
Total soil N increased significantly over time, with the highest increase in the FYM treatment (64 mg kg-1 yr-1). The changes in N over time of the control and NPK treatments were similar (Table 5). In Year 19, total N in the NPK treatment was 57% of the total N in FYM treatment, and the control had only 43% of the FYM value (Fig. 2a) . Although the N input through FYM was lower (240 kg ha-1 yr-1) than in the NPK treatment (300 kg ha-1 yr-1), the accumulation of N in soil was higher in the former than in the latter. This could be because of the slow release of N from FYM, resulting in lower losses of N (Bhandari et al., 1992; Yadav et al., 2000). Organic fertilizers such as FYM are also known to stimulate biological-N2 fixation in soil and may also be responsible for the increase in total soil N (Roper and Ladha, 1995). In addition, treatments receiving NPK and FYM produced higher crop biomass and thus extensive roots improved the organic matter and N content of the soil compared with those not receiving NPK or FYM. Like total soil N, PMN was highest in the treatment with FYM (Fig. 2b).


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Table 5. Slopes, P value, and R2 of the different soil properties from Year 10 in the rice–rice–wheat long term experiment, Bhairhawa, Nepal.

 


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Fig. 2. (a) Total soil N and (b) potentially mineralizable soil N (PMN) in control, NPK, and farmyard manure (FYM) treatments of the long-term plots after Year 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 19. Different letters indicate significant differences between treatments within a year at P <= 0.05.

 
Total Phosphorus and Bray Phosphorus
Both total and available pools of soil P had similar trends with significant differences among all three treatments (Fig. 3a,b) . The P pools increased significantly with time in the NPK and FYM treatments but remained unchanged in the control. In FYM, the total and available pools increased at the rates of 20.1 and 6.4 mg kg-1 yr-1, respectively. In Year 19, total P in the NPK treatment was 57% of the total P in FYM and Bray P was 30% of the Bray P in FYM. Input of P through FYM exceeded P output through crop removal, resulting in a large buildup of P.



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Fig. 3. (a) Total soil P and (b) Bray P in control, NPK, and farmyard (FYM) treatments of the long-term plots after Year 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 19. Different letters indicate significant differences between treatments within a year at P <= 0.05.

 
Total Potassium and Ammonium Acetate-Extractable Potassium
In contrast to total N and P, total K showed a significant decline in the NPK and FYM treatments over the last 9 yr of the experiment (Table 5). However, during the first 10 yr (when no soil analyses were conducted), a greater K extraction from soil may have occurred because of higher biomass removal. The FYM treatment had a significantly higher total soil K than the control and NPK treatments in four out of seven sampling years (Fig. 4a) . But when extracted with ammonium acetate, the K pool did not differ among treatments (Fig. 4b). In the control, the K pools remained unchanged with time (Table 5). The average annual decline of total K was 180 and 92 mg kg-1 in the NPK and FYM treatments, respectively. This suggests that the application of 25 and 40 kg K ha-1 crop-1 in the NPK and FYM treatments, respectively, was not sufficient to maintain the soil K level in the rice–rice–wheat rotation. This is contrary to the general belief that most soils of the alluvial floodplains of Asia are high in K and that additional K supply from irrigation water would make K a rare limiting factor (Bajwa, 1994; De Datta and Mikkelsen, 1985).



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Fig. 4. (a) Total soil K and (b) Ammonium acetate-extractable K in control, NPK, and farmyard manure (FYM) treatments of the long-term plots after Year 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 19. Different letters indicate significant differences between treatments within a year at P <= 0.05.

 
Total Carbon, Water-Soluble Carbon, and Potassium Manganate-Oxidized Carbon
All three pools of C were significantly higher in the FYM treatment than in the control and NPK treatments (Fig. 5a–c) . At Year 19, in the NPK treatment the total C, water-soluble C (WSC), and KMnO4-oxidized C were 55, 59, and 49%, respectively of that of the FYM treatment. Throughout the years, C pools of the control and NPK treatments were not significantly different except in later years for WSC (Fig. 5a–c). Total soil C and KMnO4-oxidized C had a significant positive trend with time in all treatments, and the rate of change did not differ among the three treatments. The FYM had the highest rate of change in total C (729 mg kg-1 yr-1) and KMnO4-oxidized C (151 mg kg-1 yr-1) (Table 5). In contrast, the WSC did not change with time in any treatment (Table 5). Apart from the addition of organic C through FYM, the quantity of organic C in the soil depends on the annual turnover of root residues (Barraclough et al., 1989), root exudates (Lilijeroth et al., 1990), and stubble (Powlson et al., 1986). The balanced application of NPK can increase the production of root biomass and stubble, which may increase soil organic C.



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Fig. 5. (a) Total soil C, (b) water-soluble C (WSC), and (c) KMnO4-oxidized C in control, NPK, and farmyard manure (FYM) treatments of the long-term plots after Year 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, and 19. Different letters indicate significant differences between treatments within a year at P <= 0.05.

 
Apparent Nutrient Balance
The apparent N balance for the average yield over 20-yr was positive, ranging from 3.4 to 96.7 kg N ha-1 yr-1 in the NPK, FYM, and control treatments (Table 6). A net loss of 4.0 kg P ha-1 yr-1 was estimated for the control treatment, whereas the NPK and FYM treatments had an apparent net P gain of 22.2 and 32.6 kg ha-1 yr-1, respectively. The apparent K balance was negative in all plots. The control plot also had a negative balance of 12.1 kg K ha-1 yr-1. These apparent balance estimates appear to be consistent with the soil N, P, and K analyses described earlier.


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Table 6. Annual N, P, and K balance in the long-term rice–rice–wheat experiment in Bhairahwa, Nepal.

 
Causes of Yield Decline
Overall, the yields of all three cereal crops in a 20-yr LTE at Bhairhawa, Nepal, showed downward trends. Though the yields of rice crops increased around Year 9, they were followed by a second decline after about Year 15. While we are unable to explain the short-term increase in rice yields, we considered several possibilities to explain the long-term yield declines of rice and wheat. The yield decline in nutrient omission plots because of gradual depletion and imbalances of one or more nutrients is expected and therefore is not of much concern. However, a yield decline in plots where full doses of an inorganic (NPK) or organic (FYM) source of nutrients are applied is of concern.

We analyzed the weather data from 1977 to 1998 to see whether there was any significant change in temperature, sunshine hours per day, and rainfall pattern, which can affect the potential yield of crops. Based on linear regression analysis, we found no appreciable change in weather variables during the study period. Pest and disease incidences were properly controlled in the experiment. Analysis of soil samples showed no measurable change in EC or pH after 20-yr of cropping. Therefore, effects of weather, pest infestation, and adverse soil conditions were ruled out as the causes of a yield decline.

Although initial data on total and available soil nutrient contents are lacking, the trends from Year 10 to 20 suggest that N, P, and C pools were either maintained or increased in the NPK and FYM treatments over time (Fig. 2, 3, and 5). In FYM, all the pools were maintained at a higher level than in the NPK treatment but still, the yield decline was not arrested. Therefore, the soil data seem to suggest that N, P, and C may not be the reasons for the yield declines of rice and wheat. However, declines in total and ammonium acetate-extractable soil K in both treatments do indicate K as a possible reason for a yield decline (Fig. 4). These conclusions based on soil data tend to be consistent with the annual N, P, and K balances (Table 6). On the other hand, the results of nutrient concentration in rice tissue suggest that, in addition to poor K supply in both the NPK and FYM treatments, the P level was also below the critical level of deficiency in the NPK treatment (Table 4). Furthermore, the crop yield data in treatments without P clearly suggested that soil P supply was a key constraint limiting yield. Yields of both rice crops dropped to zero when P was omitted but two rice crops behaved differently with P deficiency. The first rice crop produced negligible to no grain after Year 5 but the second rice crop continued to produce some grain throughout, except for a few years. The differential response to P by crops could be because of changes in the oxidation-reduction status of soil resulting from the continuous submergence in the second rice crop, intermittent wetting and drying in the first rice crop, and aerobic conditions during wheat crop. Reduced soil conditions result in increased P availability because of reduction of ferric iron phosphate compounds and increased solubility of Ca-P compounds because of a pH decrease in alkaline soils (Kirk et al., 1990; Sanyal and De Datta, 1991). Differences in P availability are also possible because of increased P sorption during the drying phase (Brandon and Mikkelsen, 1979; Sah and Mikkelsen, 1986) and differences in soil P diffusion in submerged and dry soils (Turner and Gilliam, 1976). Regmi (1994) observed increased P sorption because of drainage for the same soil. The above discussion suggests that available P measured in dry soil and at one stage of the cropping system may not be a good index of P availability (Dobermann et al., 1998).

It appears that insufficient application of K primarily limited yield in both NPK and FYM treatments. Crops fertilized with NPK averaged 47 kg ha-1 yr-1 more negative K balance than the FYM plots due almost entirely to lower K application. Regmi (1994), from a K adsorption isotherm study, showed that the soil from the FYM treatment had significantly higher K sorption capacity than the soil from the NPK treatment. In addition, plant growth may have been constrained by the excess of Mg and slight deficiency of Zn (Table 4).

In the current study, we observed a considerable fluctuation in dates of sowing of wheat but not so with rice (Table 2). Using linear regression analysis, we established the effect of a delay in planting on grain yield in the NPK treatment over the years taking the earliest date of sowing of wheat (18 November) as the base date (Fig. 6) . The analysis revealed a yield decline of 0.04 Mg ha-1 for each day delay in sowing of wheat. We adjusted the actual yields with the yield reduction caused by a delay in sowing and observed that no yield decline occurred in wheat in the NPK and FYM treatments (Fig. 7) . This shows that a delay in sowing of a crop such as wheat results in a yield loss because of a rise in temperature during grain filling. Hobbs et al. (1996) reported a yield decrease of 1% for every day delay in sowing of wheat beyond the optimum sowing day (15–20 November). We simulated the effect of the planting date on grain yield of wheat using the CERES model and observed that the sowing of wheat after the third week of November would lower the yield.



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Fig. 6. Effect of delay in sowing of wheat on yield. ** = Significantly different at P <= 0.01.

 


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Fig. 7. Trend of wheat yield after corrections for delay in sowing in (a) control, (b) NPK, and (c) farmyard manure (FYM) treatments. ** = Significantly different at P <= 0.01; ns = not significant.

 
In most parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains of India and Nepal where rice–wheat is currently produced, climatic factors allow a potential yield of rice and wheat between 7.25 to 11.75 and 4.75 to 8.25 Mg ha-1, respectively (Aggarwal et al., 2000b). Small deviations in these estimates are possible at some locations because of climatic variability. This implies that there is a large yield gap between the potential yields of the region and the average yields obtained in the current LTE. Moreover, the decline in yields will further widen the gap. Greater focus should be given to bridging up this gap and reversing the yield decline.

It is possible to bridge the yield gap and reverse the yield decline through appropriate nutrient management. A sustainable fertilizer management strategy must ensure high and stable overall productivity and sufficient nutrient supply for potential yield increases. The present recommendation of 100, 13, and 25 kg ha-1 N, P, and K for rice and 100, 17.5, and 25 kg ha-1 for wheat is inadequate for N and K but optimum for P. The studies conducted in several other locations in Nepal showed that higher yields can be obtained by applying higher rates of N, P, and K (R. Shreshtha, unpublished data, 2001). However, determination of optimum N application rate is critical because N-use efficiency varies with method and time of application. We therefore suggest applying N based on crop demands and using tools such as the chlorophyll (SPAD) meter or the leaf color chart (Balasubramanian and Morales, 1999). Application of K by farmers in the region is typically highly inadequate. But sometimes farmers do not get a response to K application and, as it involves more cost, they are reluctant to take the risk to apply K. The government should formulate policies of fertilizer pricing to encourage farmers to use more K fertilizer based on a balanced approach to ensure sustainable productivity as it is difficult to build up soil N, P, and K once they are depleted. Further studies, however, are required to validate the recommendations in farmers' fields and evaluate the economic feasibility of the fertilizer recommendations. Such a fertilizer management strategy must be revised after some years to account for the change in indigenous N, P, and K status that may have occurred because of a positive or negative N, P, and K input-output balance.


    CONCLUSIONS
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 
The study revealed that applications of N, P, and K were crucial for maintaining yields of rice and wheat in the long term. Though available K supply can be maintained from the nonexchangeable pool for some time, yield will eventually decline because of K deficiency. Several lines of evidence point to depletion of soil K and inadequate K fertilization as leading to the overall yield decline of rice and wheat. The soil K balance was highly negative even when K was applied in recommended doses, indicating that the current recommendation is not adequate for sustainable rice–wheat production. In addition, a gradual delay in planting lowered and declined wheat yield. A fertilizer management strategy that ensures sufficient nutrient supply for high and stable overall productivity of rice–wheat system is needed.


    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
 
The authors acknowledge the assistance of Mr. M. Alumaga in laboratory work. We thank Dr. R.J. Buresh and Dr. D. Olk for their constructive comments on the manuscript, and Dr. P.K. Aggarwal for simulating effects of delay in planting on yields.

Received for publication April 18, 2000.


    REFERENCES
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 MATERIALS AND METHODS
 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
 CONCLUSIONS
 REFERENCES
 




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